Diplomacy
The U.S. and its allies are stepping up intel efforts to track communications about or movements of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
The Japanese diplomat detained by Russia has been released. Japan has protested the diplomat’s expulsion, alleging he was blindfolded and restrained.
Sanctions
The Biden Administration has been resisting a bipartisan push on Capitol Hill to broaden the Russian oil price cap by imposing secondary sanctions.
Consequences
It appears the disruption of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline was actually a series of three explosions on both the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, according to Sweden. A map can be found here, and the Danish Armed Forces have shared pictures and video of leaks. Danish officials say they have not been able to get close enough to the pipe to visually assess it. The operator says it cannot estimate the timeframe for restoring operations, while the U.S. said it would provide support to Europe. The EU says it is sabotage, and the CIA had reportedly warned Germany this summer of the potential for attacks on the pipelines. Ukraine blamed it on Russia.
A Russian oligarch’s yacht was raided in Germany.
Ukraine Sitrep
Russia announced the results of the voting in the referenda in four Ukrainian regions, with pro-integration results for each in the range of 97-98%. The head of the upper house of Russia’s parliament said that the body would consider the incorporation of these regions on October 4.
Ukraine reports that Russia has gotten better at concealing its ammunition supply chain, which has reduced the effectiveness of U.S.-supplied HIMARS.
Russia’s mobilization has been bumpy, with protests and civil unrest. Kazakhstan says that 98,000 Russians entered the country since the mobilization order. Georgia says that 10,000 are fleeing to that country per day.