Diplomacy
Finland’s leaders paved the way for their country to join NATO, though it must still clear a few more steps before it formally applies.
Sanctions
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) blocked a Senate vote on the Ukraine aid package, pushing a vote to next week.
The EU is weighing dropping the oil import ban from the next round of sanctions due to Hungary’s resistance.
Japan and the EU reaffirmed their commitment to Russia sanctions.
Consequences
The International Energy Agency estimates that Russia’s oil revenue is up 50% this year. A draft EU report estimates it will cost €200 billion over five years to achieve energy independence from Russia. Though China and India have upped their purchases of Russian oil, limited pipeline capacity in Asia and long cargo ship journeys place a ceiling on just how much can be bought.
AvtoVAZ, Russia’s largest car manufacturer, will idle all operations next week due to a parts shortage. Russian airports have begun to fire employees. Siemens announced it will exit the Russian market, winding down industrial operations and business activities.
A Russian ship carrying stolen Ukrainian wheat was turned away from Egypt and Lebanon before docking in Syria.
Ukraine Sitrep
The UK assesses that Russia has pulled out of Kharkiv, which it had captured in the early days of the invasion. As Russia has lost ground in the region, war crimes investigators have stepped in to collect evidence. Russia struck Ukraine’s biggest oil refinery today.
Russia may have lost 73 vehicles in the failed river crossing in eastern Ukraine mentioned yesterday.
The UN estimates that 6 million Ukrainians have fled the country. The UN Human Rights Council voted to open a war crimes investigation.
Moldova Sitrep
No news of note