Diplomacy
French President Emmanuel Macron said that the terms and timing of a peace deal are up to Ukraine.
WNBA star Brittney Griner is appealing her prison sentence.
Sanctions
A “shadow fleet” of tankers with unknown owners are lining up to facilitate ship-to-ship transfers of oil to avoid sanctions when the price cap comes into force.
Consequences
Norway has reported an uptick in unidentified drones over its North Sea gas facilities.
Sberbank and VTB, Russia’s two largest banks, opened special rupee accounts to boost trade between Russia and India.
Superyachts docked in Turkey are raising concerns of sanctions evasion in the NATO ally.
Ukraine Sitrep
The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian military leadership has withdrawn from Kherson, potentially in preparation for a broader withdrawal.
Russia claims that Ukraine is preparing to detonate a “dirty bomb” in its own territory. However, Western defense officials are rejecting the claims, saying it is rather a pretext to escalate the conflict. Russia raised the “dirty bomb” accusation in the first conversation in months between the defense heads for the U.S. and Russia. The Pentagon says it has seen no indication Russia made a decision to use nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons.
The New York Times reports that thousands of Ukrainian children have been transferred to Russia for adoption by Russian families.
Ukraine says that 165 ships are stuck in a queue near the Bosporus Strait, undermining the grain shipping corridor.
An analysis by The Economist found that the highest conscription rates are in Russian areas with lower-than-average incomes.
Ukraine and Israel have agreed to a dialogue that will assist Ukraine in developing a civilian early warning system. Israel is also reportedly providing intelligence useful to target Iranian drones.
Other Stories of Note the Past Two Weeks
- An explosion collapsed two sections of the Kerch Strait bridge from Russia to Crimea on Saturday, October 8. Russia launched a barrage of strikes on civilian targets in response.
- Iranian drones launched by Russia struck civilian targets in Ukraine, while Iran has also reportedly promised to deliver surface-to-surface missiles and sent drone trainers to Crimea. The U.S. and EU sanctioned Iran for supplying missiles and drones to Russia. NATO will deliver air defense systems to help defend from Iranian drone strikes.
- House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said that future Ukraine aid could be difficult in a House run by Republicans, while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) disagreed.
- The Department of Justice charged seven in a plan to evade sanctions and buy semiconductors for Russia. The Commerce Department sanctioned Ural Airlines for export control violations.
- Russia is threatening to withdraw from the Black Sea grain export deal.