Diplomacy
President Joe Biden penned an op-ed in the New York Times announcing military aid (more on that below) to Ukraine. However, it also reinforced a few statements of purpose from the U.S.:
- America’s goal is to “see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.”
- “I will not pressure the Ukrainian government – in private or public – to make any territorial concessions.”
- “We will continue cooperating with our allies and partners on Russian sanctions.”
- We will…continue reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank with forces and capabilities from the United States and other allies.”
Sanctions
Hungary blocked the EU’s sixth sanctions package over the inclusion of the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church as a sanctioned individual. This was apparently not an issue that had been previously raised.
The EU is working within the G7 to ban insurance services to ship Russian oil anywhere in the world.
China has reportedly blocked Russian airlines from flying foreign-owned aircraft into its airspace to avoid sanctions exposure.
Consequences
Amid a grain shortage and port blockade, Ukraine can only ship about a fifth of its grain exports via road and rail. The U.S. is weighing sending temporary storage containers to hold grain.
It’s estimated that Russia will earn $285 billion in oil and gas revenue despite sanctions. OPEC is exploring suspending Russia from oil production targets. Russian oil is getting around sanctions through blending, transferring between ships, and other means.
Ukraine Sitrep
The aforementioned NYT op-ed announced that the U.S. would send longer-range rocket systems to Ukraine, though not the longest-range possible. Biden received assurances from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine would not use the systems to attack Russian territory, but they may use them against Russian-held Ukrainian territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson. The U.S. will train Ukrainians in an undisclosed location in Europe (where the systems had been prepositioned in anticipation of the announcement) for three weeks before they enter the battlefield. In addition to the rocket systems, the U.S. will send counter-artillery radars, air surveillance radars, anti-tank missiles, anti-armor weapons, artillery rounds, helicopters, tactical vehicles, and spare parts and equipment.
The U.S. is also weighing selling armed drones to Ukraine, while the leader of U.S. Cyber Command said that it has conducted “offensive, defensive, [and] information operations” in support of Ukraine.
The UK is asking the U.S. to sign off on a plan to send U.S.-made advanced medium-range rocket systems to Ukraine. Germany announced that it will send air defense and radar systems to Ukraine.
Moldova Sitrep
No news of note