Diplomacy

Lithuania blocked Russia from using its railways to transport materials to the exclave of Kaliningrad. Russia has threatened retaliation.

Ukraine’s Deputy Agriculture Minister reported that the country’s grain and oilseed harvest shows a 43% decrease. They have only exported 4 million tons in the last four months, compared to monthly exports of 5-6 million tons. Western governments are continuing to work together to find ways to export the grain.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed concerns that “Ukraine fatigue is starting to set in around the world. Unnamed U.S. officials told NBC News that they are increasingly concerned the trajectory of the war is “untenable and are quietly discussing whether President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should temper his hard-line public position that no territory will ever be ceded to Russia as part of an agreement to end the war.”

Actor Ben Stiller visited Kyiv, meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Sanctions

Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo is visiting Turkey and the UAE this week to support a crackdown on Russian assets abroad.

Consequences

Rosneft said it would proceed with its flagship Vostok Oil project in the Arctic despite the exit of a key partner, Trafigura Group. Russian oil flows to Europe have quietly risen, partly because the trading unit of Russia’s largest oil producer took barrels to its refineries and partly because Turkey purchased more. Indian banks may partner with unsanctioned Russian banks to facilitate transactions.

Chinese alumina exports have spiked to offset Russian production.

Ukraine Sitrep

Fighting in eastern Ukraine is still very hard to track.

The U.S. is weighing sending additional longer-range rocket systems to Ukraine but has paused a sale of large armed drones to Ukraine over fears they could fall into enemy hands.

A New York Times investigation found 1,000 photos of Russian weapons banned by international treaties.