May 18, 2022Newsletter

Russia Update: May 18, 2022


Ukraine’s chief negotiator said ceasefire talks with Russia are currently “impossible,” while Ukraine’s Foreign Minister reiterated that victory over Russia involves liberation of eastern Ukraine and Crimea, reparations, war crimes trials, and European integration.

Turkey formally blocked Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO until certain conditions are met. The Turkish government laid ten demands out in a Turkish newspaper, which include designating the Kurdistan Workers’ Party as a terrorist organization and limiting other support for the group.

The U.S. officially raised its flag over the embassy in Kyiv, while the Senate Foreign Relations Committee advanced the nomination of Bridget Brink to be the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine.

Russia expelled diplomats from France, Spain, and Italy and began the process of withdrawing from the WTO and WHO.


The U.S. is will reportedly fully block Russian debt payments after opting not to extend a temporary carve-out that ends May 25. Accordingly, the credit default swap market is now projecting a 90% likelihood of a Russian default within a year, up from 77%.

Australia announced additional sanctions on Russia, including 11 individuals and 12 entities it says are involved in propaganda and disinformation.

Canada’s parliament may consider a bill to ban Russian President Vladimir Putin and 1,000 others from the country.


Russia’s GDP grew 3.5% in Q1, missing the Bloomberg median estimate of 3.7%.

Ukraine Sitrep

While Ukraine is making gains by Kharkiv, reporting is that Russia is making gains elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.

The UN counts a total of 3,752 civilians confirmed killed and over 4,000 injured, while caveating that the true totals are likely much higher.

The EU is preparing sweeping tariff cuts for Ukraine.

Moldova Sitrep

No news of note

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