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April 21, 2022Newsletter

Russia Update: April 21, 2022

Diplomacy

Ukraine’s Prime Minister made a surprise visit to the U.S., meeting with President Joe Biden and Congressional leaders.

The Prime Ministers of Spain and Denmark visited Kyiv.

Sanctions

President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. will ban Russian-affiliated ships from American ports. The Commerce Department says that thus far, China has opted to follow U.S. export controls.

The UK sanctioned 26 Russian military officials and announced import bans on Russian silver, wood products, and luxury goods, while raising tariffs on Russian and Belarussian imports of diamonds and rubber. The EU sanctioned two additional businesspeople.

Consequences

The International Energy Agency forecasts that Russian oil production will drop by 25% in May. Austrian oil and gas corporation OMV will stop importing and refining Russian oil. The CEO of Lukoil stepped down after being sanctioned.

Russia sanctioned a number of Americans – including Vice President Kamala Harris, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and journalists – and Canadians.

P&G said it may not be able to stay in business in Russia due to sanctions, financial restrictions, supply chain issues, and monetary controls.

Ukraine Sitrep

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol “liberated” even though Ukrainian forces have not abandoned fighting positions at a steel plant yet. Putin told his Defense Minister he didn’t want to storm the plant because he didn’t want Russian forces to get bogged down. Instead, he told the Defense Minister to lock it down so that a fly can’t escape. There is speculation that Russia is trying to secure some limited victories before May 9 Victory Day celebrations.

The U.S. announced details of its next $800 million military aid package. In a speech, President Joe Biden said that he’s “almost exhausted the drawdown authority” in the recently-passed Congressional aid package and that he’ll ask Congress for a supplemental request. The U.S. will also host allies at an American base in Germany for a conference on Ukraine’s defense needs next week.

The EU said it would supply heavy weapons to Ukraine, but there won’t be many announcements about it. The Pentagon assesses that Ukraine has more tanks available than Russia due to European deliveries and further clarified that Ukraine has not received whole aircraft, just parts.

The UN says over 5 million Ukrainians have left the country, with over half going to Poland. Four buses evacuated civilians from Mariupol, while a video showed Russian officials telling schoolchildren in Mariupol that “Mariupol is the territory of the Russian Federation.” The parliaments of Estonia and Latvia called Russia’s actions in Ukraine a genocide.

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