Diplomacy
After high-profile visits from other world leaders to Kyiv, the U.S. is weighing sending a high-level official too, including potentially President Joe Biden himself. However, discussions are still ongoing. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), who is native Ukrainian, and Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) are in Kyiv after splitting off from a CODEL in eastern Europe. There are rumors other lawmakers may attempt to go to Ukraine too.
Ireland’s Foreign and Defense Minister visited Kyiv. France will reopen its embassy in Kyiv.
Sanctions
The Commerce Department identified seven Belarusian and three additional Russian aircraft that are in violation of export controls.
Australia sanctioned 14 Russian state-owned enterprises, including United Shipbuilding Corporation and Kamaz.
Ireland will support a Russian gas embargo.
The Financial Times examined Russian oligarchs the U.S. has chosen not to sanction yet despite sanctions by other countries, finding that the U.S. is trying to avoid a repeat of market chaos that was sown when it sanctioned aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska and his companies in 2018. Many unsanctioned oligarchs are in metals (nickel, palladium) or other key items and industries (LNG, auto parts, mining).
Consequences
Russia’s Central Bank may loosen capital controls as the ruble recovers. The Dutch government has instructed firms not to pay for Russian gas in rubles. Ukraine estimates inflation may exceed 20%.
Russia sanctioned most members of the House of Representatives (it’s easier to list which Members didn’t get sanctioned).
The UK froze $13 billion in assets linked to associates of Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich. Germany seized the world’s largest superyacht after determining that it was owned by the sister of sanctioned Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov.
Russia’s tech industry is facing a brain drain of epic proportions.
Ukraine Sitrep
Ukraine last night scored a major military victory when it apparently struck Russia’s Black Sea Flagship, the Moskva. The ship had 500 sailors on board – their fate is unclear. The ship had been providing command and control for other Russian warships in the Black Sea and was part of the Snake Island lore from the early days of the invasion. Russia claims there was a fire on board, but a Western official called the claim of a Ukrainian strike “credible.” The Pentagon also says it has seen other Russian warships move further off-shore, which would appear to lend additional credence to the Ukrainian strike. Ukraine claims the ship sunk, while Russia claims it is being towed to port. The Pentagon says it is still afloat but clearly damaged. Another problem for Russia is that Turkey may not allow a backfill ship to pass through the Bosphorus Strait.
The Pentagon estimates it will take about four weeks to send the entire $800 million in additional military aid that was announced yesterday. It appears Poland has sent tanks to Ukraine. Japan is reportedly preparing a military aid package for Ukraine.