Diplomacy
Both Ukraine and Russia gave discouraging signals on ceasefire negotiations. A Ukrainian negotiator said talks have been “extremely difficult.” Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, said talks are at a “dead end.” Putin also said that the military campaign will continue until its goals are fulfilled.
Ukraine vetoed a visit by Germany’s President due to his perceived close ties to Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to Lithuania’s parliament.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with their Indian counterparts yesterday. A readout noted the two sides agreed to “maintain close consultations” on Ukraine, especially for humanitarian assistance and an independent investigation into civilian massacres. A more formal joint statement made only a single reference to Ukraine as well. During a joint press availability, Blinken was careful to applaud India’s statements at the UN and humanitarian assistance but said ultimately that “India has to make its own decisions about how it approaches this challenge.” In the meantime, India is planning to boost exports to Russia by $2 billion, while Germany may not invite India to the upcoming G7 conference.
Sanctions
The Treasury Department issued a General License to wind down transactions involving Joint Stock Company SB Sberbank Kazakhstan and Sberbank Europe AG.
Consequences
Energy payments have pushed Russia’s current account surplus to the largest since at least 1994.
Ukraine’s Finance Ministry predicts a budget deficit of $5-7 billion per month and says that 30% of Ukrainian businesses have ceased all activities and 45% reduced capacity. Steelmaker ArcelorMittal partially restarted its plant in Ukraine.
Greece is increasing its natural gas reserve surveys.
Ukraine Sitrep
The UK expects fighting to intensify over the next two to three weeks in eastern Ukraine.
Train tracks in Russia that would help redeploy troops were sabotaged, though no one has taken credit. A report on a Russian hack of Ukraine’s energy grid showed it was able to switch off nine power grid substations.
The U.S. announced an additional $750 million in military aid to Ukraine and expects the recently-announced $800 million tranche to be fully delivered by mid-April. Slovakia is floating sending Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, while the Pentagon said it “does not object” to countries transferring jets to Ukraine. Germany’s Foreign Minister, who is not in the Chancellor’s party, called for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine.
The U.S. and Ukraine cannot confirm a chemical attack in Mariupol alleged by fighters there. However, the Secretary of State Blinken said the U.S. does have “credible information” that Russia could use chemical agents as it shifts to southern and eastern Ukraine.