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April 6, 2022Newsletter

Russia Update: April 6, 2022

Diplomacy

Turkey and Estonia are reopening their embassies in Kyiv. Greece is expelling 12 Russian diplomats, while Canada is hesitant to do so.

NATO is calibrating its response to any deal Ukraine might agree to, vowing to generally respect Ukraine’s wishes but keeping an eye on Russia’s ambitions too.

The EU and China held a summit this week, but China did not want to talk about Ukraine.

As Congress heads into a two-week recess, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is leading a bipartisan CODEL to Poland, the Ukrainian border with Poland, Romania, and Belgium. A separate group of lawmakers will head to Germany, Denmark, Poland, and Ukraine’s border with Poland as well.

Sanctions

The U.S. announced new sanctions, including:

  • Full blocking sanctions on Sberbank, Russia’s largest financial institution, and Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest private bank
  • A prohibition on all new investment in Russia
  • Full blocking sanctions on Russian state-owned enterprises (to be announced tomorrow)
  • Full blocking sanctions on Russian elites, including Russian President Vladimir Putin’s adult children, the wife and daughter of Russia’s Foreign Minister, and members of Russia’s Security Council
  • A prohibition on Russia from making debt payments with funds subject to U.S. jurisdiction


The UK announced new sanctions, including:

  • A full asset freeze for Sberbank and Credit Bank of Moscow
  • An end to all new UK outbound investment into Russia
  • An end to Russian coal and oil imports by the end of the year and an end to gas imports as soon as possible thereafter
  • A ban on imports f Russian iron and steel products
  • Restrictions on Russia’s ability to acquire British quantum and advanced material technologies
  • Sanctions on eight additional Russian elites


The EU is poised to target additional Russian businessmen, including the head of Sberbank, aluminum oligarch Oleg Deripaska, Putin’s daughters, and others. Ukraine expressed appreciation for the EU’s fifth sanctions package but urged them to do more, including an oil and gas embargo and removing all Russian banks from SWIFT.

New Zealand announced it would apply a 35% tariff on all Russian imports and expand its export controls to industrial products.

Consequences

After new Treasury sanctions, Russia paid $650 million in dollar-denominated in rubles, which could put it in default after a 30-day grace period. Hungary said it would pay rubles for Russian gas shipments, breaking ranks with the EU.

Ukraine Sitrep

The Pentagon assesses that Russia has completed its withdrawal from Kyiv and Chernihiv. It believes Russian troops are in Belarus for refit and resupply and will quickly redeploy to eastern Ukraine. That said, Western officials warn that there could still be an offensive on Kyiv at some point even if it’s seemingly on the backburner for now. The Wall Street Journal looked at how a surprise strike on Russian ships in southern Ukraine hobbled Russia’s eastern Ukraine strategy.

The U.S. authorized an additional $100 million in military assistance for Ukraine. The Pentagon says it’s been taking between four and six days from sign-off for equipment shipments to make it to Ukraine. The EU’s foreign policy chief said the EU has paid Russia €35 billion in energy payments but given €1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.

The U.S. believes “it will be able to identify the Russian units” that carried out atrocities in Bucha. Identification is an “extremely high priority” for the U.S. intel community.

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