Ukraine Sitrep
Rearranging slightly today due to some important news on the military front. A high-ranking Russian military officer appears to have reset Russia’s goals. Sergei Rudskoy, the head of the Russian army’s main operations directorate of the general staff, said, “The main aims of the first phase of the operation have been fulfilled…which allows efforts to be focused on achieving our main aim: liberating Donbas.” Rudskoy said that the main goal has always been to liberate Donbas, adding that Russia “never planned to storm” major Ukrainian cities. This appears to be a major climbdown as Russia didn’t obtain the quick and decisive total victory it set out for. It could also represent a shift in strategy to maximize territorial gains for leverage in ceasefire negotiations. Among the evidence that Russia is seeking to create a fait accompli in the claimed territory, Russia’s ruling party has apparently set up an office in Mariupol.
The UK assesses that Ukraine has begun targeted strikes against high-value Russian targets, including ships and ammunition at Berdyansk. The Pentagon believes that Russia no longer has full control of Kherson, which was the first major Ukrainian city Russia took. That said, Ukrainian and Russian officials still say it’s fully in Russian hands. The Pentagon also says that some types of Russian missiles have a 60% failure rate. Mariupol authorities believe about 300 civilians died in the attack on the theater.
Diplomacy
President Joe Biden is in Poland visiting American troops. He expressed regret that he couldn’t make it to Ukraine.
Adding to the confirmation that Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich helped facilitate initial Ukraine-Russia talks, his role was apparently personally approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
A White House official said India’s position on the Ukraine crisis is “unsatisfactory” but unsurprising.
Sanctions
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the U.S. is prepared to impose secondary sanctions on individuals or companies in third-party jurisdictions assisting in sanctions evasion.
Australia imposed sanctions on 22 Russians, as well as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Consequences
Germany and Italy are both urging companies to resist Russia’s demand to settle energy contracts in rubles. American natural gas exporters will meet with German buyers in Berlin next week as the U.S. seeks to supply about 10% of the EU’s imports from Russia. Germany said it is seeking to halve its dependence on Russian natural gas by the summer and end its dependence by the end of the year.
Chinese state-run energy group Sinopec Group suspended talks for a major petrochemical investment and gas venture in Russia.
The U.S. Department of Justice unsealed indictments against four Russian government employees who allegedly hacked critical infrastructure projects.
Finland suspended its only passenger rail connection to Russia. Buyers of potash and uranium are turning to Canada to fill in gaps