Diplomacy
President Joe Biden said that India has been “somewhat skaky” in its attitude toward the Russian invasion.
Sanctions
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that the U.S. and allies will announce further sanctions on Thursday during President Biden’s visit to Europe. Biden will also announce energy actions and additional humanitarian aid.
Sullivan also said that President Biden will use his upcoming Europe trip to “coordinate closely” on its messaging vis-à-vis China’s involvement with Russia. The threat of sanctions on China is spooking other Asian countries, who are worried that choosing neutrality or the wrong side could cause them to be sanctioned as well. Meanwhile, China is urging its citizens in Russia to seize opportunities presented by the sanctions.
The EU is split on a Russian oil import ban as it weighs further sanctions on Russia’s energy industry. Former Soviet republics, like Lithuania and Poland want the EU to do more, but Germany argued that the EU is too dependent on Russian oil to impose an outright ban. That sad, one unnamed EU official said that they hope to have secured enough alternate supplies by June to seriously consider it.
The House-passed bill to revoke permanent normal trade relations with Russia and empower the President to raise tariffs on Russia is stuck in the Senate over codifying the Russian energy import ban into law.
Switzerland has stood up a task force to combat sanctions evasion and collect evidence of war crimes.
Consequences
TotalEnergies will stop buying Russian crude and diesel by the end of the year, but it is keeping its stakes in Russian companies and projects, arguing that it would be impossible to find a non-Russian buyer.
Russia estimates that 78 aircraft have been seized abroad, while offering to compensate the owners of jets it has seized.
Ukraine Sitrep
The Pentagon has indications that Ukraine is “able and willing” to retake territory from Russia amid unconfirmed rumors that Ukraine has done just that in Izyum and Makariv. An unnamed Western official called 10,000 Russian losses a “reasonable estimate” but also noted that, though Russian morale is low, they still have numbers to “sustain a grinding attritional conflict for some time.”
Ukraine claims that Belarusian workers have sabotaged train connections from Belarus to Ukraine.
The UN estimates that nearly 25% of Ukraine’s population has fled outside or within the country (3.5 million refugees and 6.5 million internally displaced).